Bihar Assembly Election 2025: Exit Polls Project NDA Sweep Amidst Record Turnout

The electoral landscape of Bihar has once again captured the national imagination, following the conclusion of the 2025 Assembly elections. As the state awaits the official verdict on November 14, exit polls unanimously project a comfortable return to power for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). This forecast comes against the backdrop of a historic and unprecedented voter turnout, raising immediate questions about the underlying sentiment - whether the record participation favored the incumbent alliance or indicated a strong anti-incumbency wave.

Historic Voter Participation: A New Electoral Benchmark

The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections have set a new record for voter participation, with the overall turnout across both phases provisionally standing at approximately 66.91%. This figure marks the highest turnout recorded in any Bihar election since 1951, dramatically surpassing the 57.29% recorded in the 2020 Assembly polls.

The most striking trend is the significant surge in female voters. The Election Commission of India (ECI) noted that female turnout reached approximately 71.6%, outnumbering male participation by a substantial margin and reinforcing the role of women as a decisive political constituency in the state. Historically, such high turnouts can signal either strong pro-incumbency or a powerful desire for change, making the final vote count particularly critical.

2025 Exit Poll Analysis: NDA Poised for Power

Exit polls released following the conclusion of voting on November 11 widely project a clear majority for the NDA, led by the Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Most pollsters estimate that the ruling coalition will comfortably surpass the magic figure of 122 seats in the 243-member assembly.

Consolidated Exit Poll Projection (Poll of Polls Average)

Alliance	Projected Seats (Average Range)	Majority Mark (122)
National Democratic Alliance (NDA)	130 – 167 (Average: ~148)	Clear Majority
Mahagathbandhan (MGB)	70 – 108 (Average: ~88)	Distant Second
Others (including Jan Suraaj)	2 – 8	Marginal Impact

Leading pollsters like Matrize and Dainik Bhaskar projected the NDA's tally at the higher end of the range (145-167 seats). This suggests that the NDA's messaging on development and social welfare schemes, particularly targeting women voters, resonated effectively, countering any potential anti-incumbency factor after two decades of governance. The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, despite strong campaigning by Tejashwi Yadav, appears to have struggled to breach the three-figure mark, according to these projections.

The 2020 Verdict: A History of Misleading Polls

While the 2025 exit polls forecast an NDA victory, they must be viewed with caution, given Bihar's recent electoral history. The 2020 results served as a stark reminder of the state's political volatility and the limitations of pre-count forecasting.

In 2020, most major exit polls had incorrectly predicted a sweeping victory for the Mahagathbandhan. However, the final official result delivered a nail-biting verdict:

Party/Alliance	Seats Won in 2020
NDA (Total)	125
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	74
Janata Dal (United) - JD(U)	43
Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM)	4
Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP)	4
Mahagathbandhan (MGB) (Total)	110
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)	75
Indian National Congress (INC)	19
CPI (ML) Liberation & Others	16

The NDA secured power with a wafer-thin majority of 125 seats, just three above the required 122. Crucially, the RJD emerged as the single-largest party with 75 seats, but the BJP's dominant performance within the NDA (winning 74 seats compared to JD(U)’s 43) ultimately secured the government's formation.

Waiting for the Mandate

The comparison between the strong NDA forecast in 2025 and the unpredictable outcome of 2020 adds a layer of suspense to the counting day. The massive increase in voter turnout in 2025—especially among women—is a new variable that pollsters may or may not have accurately captured.

As Bihar’s long election cycle draws to a close, political observers understand that the exit polls offer only a preliminary snapshot. The true mandate will be revealed when the final tally is announced on November 14, determining whether the current government retains its hold, or if the Mahagathbandhan manages to once again defy projections and spring a surprise.

- Abhijit

12/11/2025