New Delhi’s Tightrope: Hasina’s Death Sentence and India’s Diplomatic Crossroads

The geopolitical landscape of South Asia was fundamentally reshaped today as Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal sentenced former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death in absentia, convicting her of "crimes against humanity" linked to the violent student uprising that deposed her government in August 2024.

The verdict, delivered amid heightened security in Dhaka, immediately placed New Delhi in a profound diplomatic and strategic bind. With Hasina currently residing in India under protection, the interim government led by Chief Adviser Dr. Muhammad Yunus has formally demanded her extradition, testing the core principles of India-Bangladesh relations just months before Bangladesh’s crucial general elections.

The Verdict and the Crisis of Legitimacy

The International Crimes Tribunal (ICT-BD) found Ms. Hasina guilty on multiple counts, including incitement, ordering killings, and failing to prevent atrocities committed by state forces during the ‘July Uprising.’ Crucially, the trial was conducted in absentia, as Hasina, who fled Bangladesh in the face of mass protests, has been granted safe haven in India.

In a defiant statement, Ms. Hasina dismissed the ruling as a "rigged" and "politically motivated charade" orchestrated by an unelected government determined to eliminate her and effectively outlaw her political organization, the Awami League (AL), which has already been barred from the upcoming February 2026 polls.

The AL's warning of massive unrest in response to the verdict amplifies the volatility, creating a security nightmare for the Yunus administration and raising the specter of cross-border instability for India.

India's Diplomatic Tightrope Walk

India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) responded with a cautiously calibrated statement, noting the verdict and affirming that India "remains committed to the best interests of the people of Bangladesh, including in peace, democracy, inclusion and stability in that country." The measured language is a textbook example of a non-committal diplomatic holding pattern, designed to buy time while avoiding offence to either Dhaka or its own domestic constituency.

However, the extradition demand from the Yunus government turns this careful balancing act into an existential diplomatic crisis for New Delhi.

The Dilemma:

1. Extradite Hasina: Compliance would honour the 1990 Extradition Treaty between the two nations and potentially ease relations with the new, popular government in Dhaka. However, it would be seen globally as a betrayal of a long-standing strategic ally, damaging India’s credibility in the region and setting a dangerous precedent for future leaders seeking refuge.
2. Refuse Extradition: Refusal, which is widely anticipated, risks a full-blown diplomatic breakdown with Dhaka. The Yunus government has already signaled that protecting a convicted felon is an "unfriendly gesture." This could endanger ongoing economic and strategic cooperation, including connectivity projects, power supply agreements (like the Adani Power deal), and critical counter-terrorism efforts.

For years, Sheikh Hasina was New Delhi’s most reliable partner. Her tenure was marked by unprecedented cooperation on security, border management, and trade, including the handing over of anti-India insurgents and a crackdown on extremist groups operating out of Bangladeshi soil. Losing this trusted ally is a major strategic blow.

Geopolitical and Security Implications

The crisis transcends bilateral relations; it is a critical test of India’s regional influence against a shifting geopolitical backdrop:

1. The China Factor

The political vacuum and instability in Dhaka offer a window of opportunity for China to deepen its economic and strategic footprint. Unlike New Delhi, Beijing can engage pragmatically with the new power centre in Dhaka without the baggage of prior political alignments. Any significant deterioration in India-Bangladesh ties could push Dhaka further into China’s sphere of influence, directly challenging India’s ‘Act East Policy’ and security concerns in the Bay of Bengal.

2. Internal Security and Refugee Flow

India shares a 4,096 km porous border with Bangladesh. Political unrest and instability in Bangladesh historically lead to cross-border issues, including the illegal movement of people, arms, and drugs. The potential for a refugee influx, particularly concerning the safety of Bangladesh's Hindu minority amid the chaos, remains a significant concern for the northeastern states of India.

3. Anti-India Sentiment

India's consistent and strong support for Hasina’s autocratic rule prior to her ouster has fuelled significant anti-India sentiment among the protesting youth and opposition elements in Bangladesh. By sheltering Hasina, New Delhi risks reinforcing the narrative that it is more interested in its own strategic proxies than in supporting the democratic aspirations of the Bangladeshi people.

The Likely Path Forward

New Delhi's strategy will likely involve calculated delay and non-compliance with the extradition request, while simultaneously initiating constructive dialogue with the Yunus government.

India is expected to leverage diplomatic avenues, arguing that the ICT-BD, established domestically, may not meet international standards of jurisprudence required for an extradition case. It is highly probable that India will grant Hasina extended asylum, at least until the internal political flux in Bangladesh stabilises post-February 2026 elections.

In the near term, India must navigate this highly charged situation by:

• Prioritizing stability over political loyalty, engaging broadly with all major stakeholders, including the AL leadership in exile and the Yunus government.
• Securing its borders to prevent any spillover of internal Bangladeshi unrest.
• Working through multilateral forums to stress the importance of a free, fair, and inclusive election in Bangladesh, tacitly signaling its hope for the Awami League's return to the political arena, even if indirectly.

The verdict on Sheikh Hasina is not merely a legal conclusion; it is a political earthquake whose aftershocks will define the future of the Bay of Bengal region, forcing India to make hard choices that will determine the course of its most crucial bilateral relationship in South Asia.

- Abhijit

18/11/2025